Predict an Oscar winner by crunching the numbers

Paul Marks, chief technology correspondent

(Image: James Leynse/Corbis)

The feverish speculation over Hollywood's annual Academy Awards gongfest has a software-centric, algorithmic edge to it this year - fuelled by super-statto Nate Silver's astonishing success predicting the US election result. That result has led a number of organisations to draft predictive algorithms that they hope will identify the Oscar winners.

First, the Motion Picture Association of America's site, thecredits.org, is crunching numbers on the "positive mentions" of actors, actresses and movies in reviews, on Twitter and Facebook, and in movie forum threads. The idea is to assess genuine public sentiment about the contenders, rather than PR-fuelled "buzz" from the studios. In sampling this way, the algorithm naturally shuns statistical noise caused by spin doctors, says its author, Edward Crook, a UK-based movie buff. With a week to go, his technique has hostage drama Argo most likely to win best picture, with best actor as Daniel Day Lewis in Lincoln.

Meanwhile, a prediction routine written by Columbus, Ohio-based analyst Farsite Forecast reckons (as of today) that Lincoln has both best picture and best actor wrapped up. Its analytical technique includes weighting critical sentiment with the results of the Writers Guild of America awards, which were presented over the weekend. That may change the model once Farsite has crunched the numbers later today - so keep an eye on its site.

Agreeing with Crook and his crew re: best picture and best actor at the moment, however, is Microsoft Research: its predictive economist David Rothschild called 50 out of 51 states correctly on US election night last November. His technique involves taking account of the fact that the tiny number of voters involved in choosing the Oscar winners might lead to what seem like some outlandish decisions: there are just under 5800 members in the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences eligible to vote. His soothsaying website PredictWise lists all the Oscars categories and their likelihood of winning.

Doubtless the stattos will compare their respective performances a week hence, allowing sharper algorithms to operate next year. My prediction? It won't be long before the studios are using such algorithms to option - or dump - screenplays. Yes, robots will be choosing what you watch at the cinema. Isn't artificial life grand?

Source: http://feeds.newscientist.com/c/749/f/10897/s/28b0af24/l/0L0Snewscientist0N0Cblogs0Conepercent0C20A130C0A20Coscar0Eprediction0Bhtml0Dcmpid0FRSS0QNSNS0Q20A120EGLOBAL0Qonline0Enews/story01.htm

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